SMALL BUSINESS LENDING INTEL

Small Business Lending Forecasts

SBA 7(a) Small Business and Franchise Business Lending Forecasts

Our Forecast Model
Our forecast model is far from a crystal ball, it’s just an AI-powered best guess. We created our SBADNA forecast model in 2020 and while we continue to make adjustments, it’s a powerful tool. Our analytics platform allows for forecasts to be created based on a combination of multiple different filters. For lenders and franchises with fewer than 10 years of data, or when the loan data category has minimal or erratic data, the forecast quality suffers. Our forecast model is based on Holt-Winters Forecasting model a.k.a. Triple Exponential Smoothing. The forecast is calculated as a weighted average of all historical data. Recent data is weighted exponentially higher than older data. The Holt-Winters method is based on either additive or multiplicative components. The AI-powered platform internally calculates results by both algorithms and shows the best results of the two.

SBA 7(a) General Lending Forecasts

SBADNA Analytics Forecasted SBA 7(a) Loan Activity

All Loan Amounts

Loan Amounts < $150K

Loan Amounts $350K - $1M

Loan Amounts < $1M

Loan Amounts > $1M

forecast loans <$150K.png
forecast loans 350K-$1M.png
forecast loans < $1M.png
forecast loans > $1M.png

SBA 7(a) Franchise Lending Forecasts

SBADNA Analytics Forecasted SBA 7(a) Loan Activity

All Loan Amounts

Loan Amounts < $150K

Loan Amounts $350K - $1M

Loan Amounts < $1M

Loan Amounts > $1M

forecast under $150K franchise lending.png
forecast 350-1M franchise lending.png
forecast under $1M franchise lending.png
forecast over $1M franchise lending.png

SBA 7(a) Industry Lending Forecasts

SBADNA Analytics Forecasted SBA 7(a) Loan Activity

Industries Included:

Full-Service Restaurants

Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels

Limited-Service Restaurants

Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores

Child Care Services

Offices of Dentists

All Other Specialty Trade Contractors

Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors

Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers

Beer, Wine, and Liquor Retailers

Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists)

General Automotive Repair Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars

forecast - auto repair.png
forecast - beer and wine.png
forecast - child day care.png
forecast - dentists.png
forecast - fitness and recreation sports centers.png
forecast - gas stations.png
forecast - hotels.png
forecast - physicians.png
forecast - plumbing, heating and AC.png
forecast - restaurants.png
forecast - snack bars.png
forecast - specialty trade contractors.png

SBADNA Analytics

Source: All SBA 7(a) data shared is based on all SBA lending from all sources and not from SBA lending through LoanBox. SBA data and reports are not from the SBA but from SBA data from the lending analytics platform developed and maintained by SBADNA Analytics. SBADNA and LoanBox are both owned by the same parent company FuseSync LLC.  LoanBox and SBADNA does not validate or verify the data released by the SBA and provides no warranty of data accuracy or completeness.  

Data Source & Methodology

The original source of SBA loan data is derived from data released by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). The SBA collects individual loan data from the SBA lender/bank approving and providing SBA loans. The SBA then makes basic loan data public through the FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) requirements. The SBA FOIA data is imported into the SBADNA advanced analytics platform which is then used to generate the reports and rankings

Read more about SBADNA utilizing SBA loan data source and methodology.

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